Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.327499 22.177149 26.455093 31.536015 37.379401 43.862215 51.570325
2025-02-16 12.739558 17.739329 23.914964 31.988442 42.138594 54.345257 69.990174
2025-02-23 9.435716 14.730787 21.843747 31.847725 45.273856 62.369442 85.439786
2025-03-02 7.115498 12.328276 19.874155 31.176514 47.196037 68.564562 98.609067
2025-03-09 5.632260 10.734559 18.632213 31.127449 49.676695 75.392848 112.779434
2025-03-16 4.164559 8.792533 16.478559 29.339119 49.333272 78.119009 121.337131
2025-03-23 3.560787 8.165340 16.250743 30.376817 53.118570 86.791153 138.552518
2025-03-30 2.847872 7.157830 15.199583 29.910609 54.473771 91.908315 150.849483
2025-04-06 2.543854 6.880754 15.368276 31.454177 59.064636 102.060232 170.968103
2025-04-13 1.865426 5.625966 13.513974 29.234860 57.279084 102.266443 176.129844
2025-04-20 1.597895 5.228919 13.242944 29.801999 60.155174 109.862900 192.845840
2025-04-27 1.393115 4.928907 13.114937 30.601996 63.458494 118.275847 211.158800
2025-05-04 1.167780 4.543988 12.820163 31.203469 66.744909 127.316201 231.692945
2025-05-11 0.976006 4.193501 12.553542 31.860950 70.252260 137.046992 254.033058
2025-05-18 0.778223 3.741440 11.953277 31.735784 72.267327 144.338839 272.727845
2025-05-25 0.597564 3.256588 11.159138 31.067559 73.150505 149.679150 288.392087
2025-06-01 0.477018 2.925126 10.681384 31.018711 75.205485 157.144302 307.901446
2025-06-08 0.332280 2.398776 9.531167 29.235472 73.583054 157.881538 315.923690
2025-06-15 0.286811 2.288924 9.560563 30.270212 77.832739 169.521952 343.250462
2025-06-22 0.218757 2.014979 9.017611 29.805331 78.863392 175.223646 360.381396
2025-06-29 0.197234 1.983638 9.248402 31.344521 84.317888 189.493837 393.216083
2025-07-06 0.127182 1.582998 8.118052 29.131513 81.331948 187.495769 396.821400
2025-07-13 0.104881 1.481389 8.017977 29.697031 84.610031 197.756871 422.998246